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Prediction for CME (2023-11-27T20:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-11-27T20:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27895/-1
CME Note: Halo CME centered towards the east in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and after a data gap from 2023-11-27T17:53Z-23:53Z in STEREO A COR2. Source eruption can be seen starting around 2023-11-27T18:19Z in SDO AIA 193 and is best characterized by an EUV wave, dimming, and post eruptive arcades. Associated with a C3.8 class flare from an unnumbered region around N20E15. The arrival signature (likely of the combined front of this CME and of the 2023-11-27T23:48Z CME) is characterized by a sudden amplification of magnetic field from 4 nT to 13 nT (and eventually to 15 nT), with Bz component reaching -13 nT . Accompanied by a sharp jump in solar wind speed from under 350 to 450 km/s, in ion density to over 20 particles/cc and in temperature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-11-30T23:29Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-11-30T21:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 8.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 31128
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 28 Nov 2023, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) 
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet 
PREDICTIONS FOR 28 Nov 2023  10CM FLUX: 177 / AP: 006 
PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Nov 2023  10CM FLUX: 173 / AP: 005 
PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Nov 2023  10CM FLUX: 165 / AP: 004

Coronal mass ejections: A partial halo Corona Mass Ejection (CME) can be seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images starting from yesterday 18:48 UTC. It is expected to be geo-effective and arrive on 1 Dec. Another CME associated with a filament eruption can be seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images starting from
23:48 UTC, yesterday. Based on the location and extent of the filament, it is expected to arrive at Earth's environment early on Dec 1. These two events, together with the possible arrival of a CME reported yesterday, are likely to merge together and cause a strong single effect in the first half of 1 Dec.

Lead Time: 51.72 hour(s)
Difference: 2.48 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M) on 2023-11-28T19:46Z

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